Colliers’ latest industrial and logistics market report, covering the 25 largest U.S. industrial markets that together account for roughly three-quarters of national industrial activity, paints a picture of resilience under strain. While port flows, labor dynamics, and freight pricing are adjusting to policy and demand shifts, year-to-date trade and occupancy fundamentals continue to point to sustained demand rather than retrenchment.
Ports, Tariffs, and Policy Uncertainty Reframe Trade Flows
The most visible pressure point remains trade policy. Beginning in November, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the legality of the administration’s import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, introducing a new layer of legal risk into long-term sourcing and pricing decisions. At the same time, California’s veto of SB 34, legislation that would have restricted port-side automation funding, removed a near-term regulatory overhang for West Coast ports, preserving optionality around terminal investment and productivity upgrades.
Despite these uncertainties, import volumes have not collapsed. Total U.S. container imports fell 8.4% in September from both August 2025 and the prior year, but year-to-date volumes remain ahead of 2024 levels. That divergence reflects front-loading earlier in the year, tariff-driven timing shifts, and uneven regional port performance rather than a broad-based demand shock.
China-origin volumes continue to weaken. Imports from China declined nearly 23% year over year in September, with notable pullbacks across aluminum, footwear, toys, sporting goods, and electrical machinery. Trade reports suggest these declines are being partially offset by diversification into Southeast Asia and Mexico, reshaping inland freight and warehousing demand even as total import volumes hold up.
Freight Rates, Labor Conditions, and Storage Economics Adjust
Freight markets are responding unevenly. Since July, national truckload and refrigerated rates rose 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively, driven by late-summer produce shipments and retail inventory replenishment. Dry van capacity has tightened further as smaller carriers continue to exit the market, amplifying seasonal rate spikes. Flatbed rates, by contrast, fell 1.7%, tracking the slowdown in construction activity and softer building permit data.
Air cargo pricing has moved higher as well, reflecting constrained availability of dedicated freighters and rising operating costs. Ocean freight tells a different story: rates continued to drift lower through Q3 as weak peak-season demand from China collided with excess vessel capacity and tariff-related front-loading earlier in the year. The National Retail Federation expects import volumes at major U.S. ports to trend downward through the end of 2025.
Labor conditions appear stable but cooling. Warehouse wages and median associate pay held steady in Q3, while unemployment remained at 4.3%. With the September jobs report delayed by a federal shutdown, FactSet estimates suggest modest job growth of roughly 50,000 positions. Consumer sentiment around employment has softened, and forecasters broadly expect slower hiring into early 2026 without renewed wage inflation.
On the real estate side, Colliers notes growing interest in customs bonded warehouses and Foreign Trade Zone facilities as tariff exposure rises. Each structure offers different duty deferral and processing advantages, but qualifying properties remain limited, making location and facility design increasingly strategic variables rather than administrative afterthoughts.
Optionality Is Becoming a Balance-Sheet Variable
As tariff exposure, freight volatility, and labor availability harden into semi-permanent features of the operating environment, flexibility itself is starting to carry a measurable cost, and value. Decisions around where inventory sits, which facilities qualify for duty deferral, and how quickly freight can be rerouted are no longer just executional choices; they influence working capital, cash timing, and margin durability. Recent trade and logistics data suggests that companies treating network design as a financial lever, rather than a static footprint, are better positioned to absorb policy shocks without resorting to reactive pricing or service trade-offs. That shift may matter more in 2026 than any single rate move or volume forecast.
