The U.S. freight market is struggling to find stability heading into the year-end. Uber Freight’s new Quarterly Market Update and Outlook Report points to the highest average effective tariff rate since 1936, 16.4%, compounding pressures from weakening industrial output and a cooling labor market. Capacity is contracting below pre-pandemic levels, and carrier margins have fallen to their lowest point in 15 years.
While pre-stocking activity ahead of expected cost increases has briefly lifted volumes, the broader picture remains soft. Uber Freight estimates that current tariffs will push prices up 1.4% this year, equating to an average annual cost of $1,900 per household.
Weak Fundamentals Weigh on Truckload and LTL Markets
According to the report, most freight-generating sectors have stagnated, keeping truckload demand flat even as inventories adjust. Less-than-truckload (LTL) volumes fell 4% year-over-year in the first half of 2025 but remain comparatively resilient thanks to stable service quality and flexible pricing. General rate increases are expected to stay within the 3–5% range, though analysts say shippers may have room to negotiate if volume growth continues to lag.
Carrier profitability has plummeted, with forecasts suggesting sustained softness through the first half of 2026. The imbalance between available capacity and tepid demand has compressed margins, while economic uncertainty and rising cargo theft risk are forcing shippers to revisit route planning and insurance strategies. Cross-border operations face added complexity as U.S. tariffs increase exporter uncertainty, particularly for firms operating within North American trade lanes.
North American Trade Dynamics Shift Under Tariff Pressure
Mexico’s modest economic growth remains one of the few bright spots. Ongoing nearshoring under the USMCA continues to attract investment in automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical manufacturing. However, trade frictions and new tariffs are constraining U.S. export volumes, particularly in vehicles and industrial goods.
In Canada, cross-border freight is slowing as U.S. tariffs suppress demand for heavy equipment and electronics. Seasonality in the spot market has weakened, putting downward pressure on contract rates into early Q3. Uber Freight advises shippers to secure capacity through RFQs or mini-bids and to enhance network efficiency as market volatility persists.
Freight Strategy Turns to Structural Resilience
The next phase of freight strategy will likely depend less on rate cycles and more on long-term resilience. According to logistics industry data, firms that have diversified regional sourcing and invested in contract flexibility are cushioning tariff shocks more effectively than those relying on traditional long-haul models. As policy risks multiply and carrier exits continue, supply chain teams are beginning to treat freight networks less as cost centers and more as dynamic systems that need continuous recalibration, linking procurement, transportation, and trade strategy in real time.
