Costco plans to add approximately 30 net new warehouses annually for the next five to 10 years, but expects capital expenditure growth to slow after fiscal 2027. Its approximately $7.5 billion total capital expenditure plan includes supply chain investment intended to support future openings and e-commerce growth, placing greater weight on how much future volume the network can absorb.
In Brief
- Costco plans 33 warehouse openings in fiscal 2027, including five relocations, as it builds toward approximately 30 net additions a year.
- Total capital expenditure is expected to rise from $6.4 billion to approximately $7.5 billion, driven mainly by the warehouse pipeline and continued outsized supply chain spending.
- With capital expenditure growth expected to slow after fiscal 2027, the value of current investment will depend on how many future openings and digital orders the supporting network can accommodate.
Supply Chain Investment Is Supporting Future Growth
Costco’s warehouse objective extends well beyond the next financial year. The retailer sees a path to approximately 30 net new locations annually for five to 10 years, turning expansion into a recurring planning cycle rather than a succession of isolated construction projects.
The capital profile does not follow the same timetable. Spending is expected to reach approximately $7.5 billion in fiscal 2027, up from $6.4 billion, after three years of unusually strong growth beginning in fiscal 2025. Costco expects the rate of capital expenditure growth to slow after fiscal 2027 even as warehouse openings continue.
For supply chain leaders, the planning challenge is matching capacity investment to several years of growth across markets with different demand profiles.
Costco’s spending is intended to prepare its supply chain for future warehouse and e-commerce volume. The economic value of that investment therefore rests partly on how much subsequent growth the resulting capacity can support. Distribution infrastructure and supporting capabilities will need to serve several future waves of openings without requiring the same rate of capital growth each year.
Costco has not separated spending on warehouses from distribution infrastructure, automation and technology. It has said, however, that the increase is predominantly associated with the opening pipeline and continued outsized supply chain investment intended to support future warehouse and e-commerce growth.
Thirty Openings Do Not Create One Capacity Requirement
A repeatable opening target does not mean every warehouse places the same demands on the network.
Fiscal 2027 plans include four buildings in Europe, five in Canada and one in Mexico, followed by a stronger pipeline across Asia, Australia and other international markets in fiscal 2028. Costco is also balancing new-market locations, infill warehouses and relocations.
These sites produce different demand patterns. New-market warehouses typically attract more new members, while infill locations add fewer members but reach mature sales and profitability more quickly. Relocations transfer established demand into a new asset rather than building the customer base from the beginning.
The geographic economics also differ. Costco reports that warehouses in Asia can serve more members, although those members tend to visit less often. U.S. warehouses generally have fewer members but higher spending per member.
Capacity planning must therefore account for more than the number of openings. The mix of sites affects launch inventory, replenishment volume, supplier requirements and the speed at which each location places demand on distribution assets.
A network built around an average warehouse could carry too much capacity in some markets and become constrained in others. The investment program has to accommodate different sales ramps and shopping patterns while preserving a common warehouse model.
The Same Network Must Support Digital Demand
Costco’s infrastructure is also being built for demand that does not pass through the checkout in the conventional way.
Digitally enabled sales exceeded $33 billion in fiscal 2026 and increased by more than 20%. Partnerships with Instacart, Uber Eats and DoorDash provide average delivery times of less than one hour, with Costco describing much of that demand as incremental to warehouse shopping.
Orders placed through these delivery platforms draw on warehouse inventory. As the warehouse network expands, it adds more potential inventory points for third-party delivery without requiring Costco to own the complete last-mile system.
That arrangement limits one form of capital commitment but increases the importance of stock accuracy, picking capacity and product availability inside each warehouse. A delivery partner can provide rapid transportation, but it cannot correct an unavailable item or inventory record that does not match the physical stock.
The supporting investment must therefore serve two growth paths. It has to replenish a larger warehouse estate while also supporting e-commerce growth, including additional delivery-platform demand drawn from warehouse inventory.
Capital Productivity Becomes the Expansion Measure
Costco’s current network is producing efficiency gains. In the fourth quarter, supply chain improvements contributed to margin growth across categories, while core-on-core margin on core merchandise sales improved by 18 basis points after excluding tariff refunds and their reinvestment.
The expansion program must preserve that productivity while adding volume. Thirty annual openings will increase the number of facilities requiring launch stock, replenishment support and distribution capacity, but the capital needed to serve them cannot continue accelerating indefinitely.
Warehouse count alone will not show whether the investment cycle has created a scalable network. A more revealing measure will be how much additional physical and digital volume Costco can place through the capacity funded today before another major increase in infrastructure spending becomes necessary.
