Economic strain is reshaping the 2025 holiday shopping season, with consumers planning leaner spending and prioritizing value over speed. A new survey from Kenco Logistics shows households are tightening budgets amid rising inflation and trade-related cost pressures, with shipping and returns emerging as deciding factors in where they shop.
Pricing Pressures Eclipse Other Concerns
Kenco’s 2025 eCommerce Peak Season Pulse found that 58% of shoppers cite product pricing and inflation as their top concern this holiday season, more than three times the share worried about product availability (16%). Roughly 28% expect to spend less this year, up 11 percentage points from 2024, while 79% overall say their budgets will remain flat or decline.
Consumers are nearly split on what’s driving higher costs: 57% blame inflation, while 56% point to tariffs and international trade disruptions. Nearly nine in 10 shoppers said they are worried about how global trade tensions, from import duties to shipping route volatility, could affect prices and availability. For retailers, this combination signals a season defined not just by product assortment but by cost-control strategies.
Logistics Choices Shape Where Consumers Buy
As higher prices squeeze household budgets, shipping and returns are becoming the critical battleground for retailers. Seventy-five percent of consumers said they would choose free, slower delivery over a paid expedited option, while 72% named free return shipping as the most valuable return-related incentive, far outpacing no restocking fees (35%) or faster reimbursement (31%).
At the same time, expectations for delivery visibility are climbing. Fifty-eight percent of shoppers want real-time map tracking, while more than a third expect countdown timers or photo proof of delivery. With 77% of respondents planning to make at least 40% of their holiday purchases online, reliable fulfillment and reverse logistics are poised to determine brand loyalty.
Competing on Convenience
While retailers will lean heavily on promotions to offset inflationary headwinds, convenience may prove the stronger differentiator. According to Kenco, demand will concentrate around merchants that not only offer sharp pricing but also simplify the shopping experience with economical shipping, flexible delivery, and hassle-free returns.
While many customers are willing to accept slower, free shipping, expectations for transparency and control have never been higher. Retailers able to strike the right balance, offering visibility and reliability without inflating costs, stand the best chance of navigating what promises to be a cautious, deal-driven holiday season.
