Most freight forwarders struggle to protect margin during the Chinese New Year period, not because of unavoidable capacity shortages or carrier behavior, but due to internal execution failures that surface as volumes surge and timelines compress. New findings released by Ontegos Cloud show that delayed decisions, weak visibility, and misalignment between commercial and operational teams consistently undermine performance during what has become one of the industry’s most predictable stress tests.
Chinese New Year falls on February 17 this year, though factory shutdowns typically extend for two to three weeks. The pre-holiday export rush is already pushing container spot rates higher, while air freight markets are expected to tighten sharply as the shutdown approaches. Despite these well-telegraphed dynamics, most organizations still enter the period focused on damage control rather than opportunity capture.
Execution, Not Capacity, Drives Outcomes
According to the survey, nearly 40% of respondents said their organizations typically lose margin during the Chinese New Year period as they prioritize service continuity and customer retention. Another 35% reported merely holding ground, absorbing operational strain without generating commercial upside. Only 18% said they consistently outperform less-prepared competitors, and just 9% reported converting the disruption into a sustained advantage.
The data challenges the long-held assumption that Chinese New Year performance is primarily dictated by external constraints. Respondents were more likely to cite internal execution issues than market conditions as the dominant drivers of outcomes during the period.
Internal planning and preparation were identified as the strongest differentiator, cited by 56% of respondents. Nearly half pointed to the quality of operational data and real-time visibility as a critical factor, while 44% highlighted the speed of internal decision-making. These execution levers consistently outweighed concerns about carrier pricing, equipment availability, or broader market volatility.
More than 83% of respondents said execution gaps play a significant or moderate role in amplifying Chinese New Year-related challenges. The most common breakdowns during the buildup to the holiday included delayed or reactive decision-making, reported by 52%; limited real-time visibility into shipments and margins, cited by 47%; and poor alignment between operations, pricing, and finance teams, noted by 43%.
A Predictable Stress Test With Repeatable Results
The findings suggest that Chinese New Year has become less of an extraordinary disruption and more of a recurring operational exam, one that many organizations continue to fail in similar ways each year. Despite the predictability of factory closures and volume surges, execution weaknesses remain stubbornly persistent.
Looking ahead, 90% of respondents said execution will be critical or important to managing predictable disruptions like Chinese New Year in the future. As freight markets remain volatile and customer expectations continue to rise, the ability to plan earlier, surface margin exposure in real time, and coordinate decisions across functions is becoming a structural requirement rather than a competitive differentiator.
Oliver Gritz, founder and chief executive officer of Ontegos Cloud, argues that the repeat nature of these failures should shift how organizations view the problem. “Delayed decisions, poor visibility, and misaligned teams aren’t exceptional failures,” he said in an official statement. “They happen every year, which means they’re solvable.”
Where Execution Discipline Is Quietly Rewriting Cost Structures
One development gaining traction inside larger forwarding networks is the shift toward margin governance tied directly to operational execution windows, an approach reflected in recent disclosures from public logistics companies that now track contribution margin at the shipment or customer level. As this practice spreads, predictable peaks like Chinese New Year are becoming moments when financially disciplined operators widen the gap by acting on concrete cost signals rather than intuition or end-of-month reconciliations. That convergence of operational timing and financial clarity is creating a structural advantage for firms that can make fast decisions with verified data rather than waiting for profitability to surface after the fact.
