Insurance costs, vessel availability and limited traffic visibility are placing new constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As inbound capacity tightens, supply chain and procurement teams face a more complex planning environment where freight decisions depend as much on risk acceptance as physical access.
Insurability Now Governs Usable Gulf Capacity
Preliminary Lloyd’s List Intelligence figures recorded 39 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between July 20 and July 26, down from 82 during the previous week. The count includes vessels connected to Iran and ships without Iranian ownership, trading exposure or sanctions links.
Movement among non-Iranian-linked vessels declined from 30 transits to 22. The direction of travel reveals a deeper capacity imbalance. Fifteen vessels departed the Gulf, including seven loaded very large crude carriers, while only seven entered. The inbound group comprised three product tankers, three crude tankers and one bulk carrier.
Inbound Gulf traffic remains more than 90% below levels recorded before the strikes on Iran, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. That reduction limits the future availability of ships inside the region even as loaded vessels continue to depart.
A brief increase in activity has yet to signal a sustained recovery. Kpler data reported by Reuters identified 12 commodity-vessel crossings on one Wednesday, evenly divided between arrivals and departures. One was the Al Areesh, the first QatarEnergy-controlled LNG tanker recorded leaving the strait since July 11. It had loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal and was traveling to Port Qasim in Pakistan.
These isolated movements show that passage remains physically possible. Commercial capacity is being determined by vessel availability, risk approval and voyage economics.
Risk Pricing Redraws Routing Economics
War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz voyages have climbed to between 7.5% and 10% of vessel value, according to S&P Global Energy. Several weeks earlier, the range stood at 1% to 3%. A 10% charge on a ship valued at $100 million adds $10 million to a voyage before fuel, chartering, port and operating costs.
That pricing changes the threshold for accepting Gulf cargo. Low-margin movements become harder to justify, while charterers face higher freight costs, tighter vessel choice and longer lead times. Procurement and planning models must account for insurable capacity, contractual risk allocation and the cash impact of additional inventory buffers.
Transit data also carry substantial uncertainty. Lloyd’s List Intelligence estimated that 70% of the week’s traffic could not be followed through visible Automatic Identification System signals. Of the 22 identified non-Iranian-linked crossings, 21 involved vessels operating without visible AIS transmissions.
Alternative tonnage is entering the gap. Nearly 30 tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers previously associated with sanctioned oil trades have moved into Gulf business vacated by mainstream operators. That substitution increases the importance of counterparty screening, vessel-condition checks and sanctions compliance when securing transport capacity.
Planning Around Executable Capacity
Shipping corridors can remain physically open while commercial capacity tightens as insurers, shipowners and charterers apply different risk thresholds. For supply chain teams, that places greater emphasis on securing transport options, reviewing contract flexibility and validating carrier access before disruption occurs. Organizations that incorporate insurance availability, vessel access and verified transit data into routine planning are likely to make more reliable sourcing and inventory decisions during periods of sustained geopolitical uncertainty.
