Despite intensifying trade frictions and an increasingly unpredictable policy backdrop, senior business leaders entered 2026 with a surprisingly steady view of global commerce. New findings released this week suggest that confidence in trade volumes is holding firm, even as expectations of tariffs and regulatory barriers remain elevated.
According to the DP World Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report, unveiled January 20 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the vast majority of executives expect global trade growth this year to at least match 2025 levels. The optimism comes even as more than half of respondents anticipate high or very high policy uncertainty, and roughly nine in ten believe trade barriers will either rise or remain in place.
The survey, conducted across major trading regions, paints a picture of confidence tempered by realism. Executives appear less focused on a return to frictionless trade and more on navigating volatility through structural adjustments to their networks.
Confidence Holds Across Regions, With Europe and China in Focus
The report shows that 94% of executives worldwide expect trade to remain stable or expand in 2026, underscoring resilience in global demand despite geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. When asked where growth opportunities are most likely to emerge, respondents most frequently cited Europe (22%) and China (17%), followed by Asia-Pacific (14%) and North America (13%).
Asia-Pacific stands out for the depth of its optimism. In Thailand, 73% of executives surveyed expect faster trade growth in 2026, ranking it just behind India and the United States within the study. Expectations are also positive, though more measured, in Indonesia (61%), the Philippines (50%), and China (42%). The spread highlights both regional momentum and differing assessments of domestic and external constraints.
Trade analysts note that Europe’s strong showing reflects expectations of gradual normalization in industrial demand and logistics flows, while confidence in China is increasingly tied to regional trade and intra-Asia supply chains rather than export growth alone.
Diversification, Not Retrenchment, Shapes Supply Chain Strategy
Rather than pulling back in response to uncertainty, companies are actively reconfiguring how and where they trade. The report points to diversification as the dominant response, with supplier expansion and selective realignment taking precedence over wholesale relocation.
In China and Indonesia, increasing the number of suppliers is the top diversification strategy, cited by 69% and 66% of executives respectively. In Thailand and the Philippines, friendshoring, shifting trade toward politically aligned or lower-risk partners, has gained more traction, prioritized by 52% and 48% of respondents.
DP World says these patterns reflect a broader shift toward network optionality. Companies are seeking to preserve access to growth markets while reducing exposure to single-country shocks, even if that means operating with greater structural complexity. Recent trade data and shipping volumes suggest this approach is already reshaping flows across Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Europe.
A Closer Read on Trade Signals
Recent shipping and customs data shows that the most instructive indicators are shifting from headline volumes to the micro-patterns inside them, such as the pace of cross-border clearances, supplier fill-rate consistency, and the resilience of secondary trade corridors. These data points often reveal turning movements in demand and risk long before official forecasts do. As companies prepare for 2026, giving greater weight to these operational signals may offer a clearer sense of where trade momentum is genuinely forming, and where early adjustments could protect performance before pressures surface in the broader metrics.
