U.S. businesses spent the summer weighing whether to stock up or wait out Donald Trump’s tariff threats. With duties now firmly in place, smaller importers are facing the harsh reality of higher costs, thinner margins, and a loss of trade flexibility that larger competitors are better equipped to absorb.
Tariffs Drive Cost Spikes and Volume Cuts
A new survey of 336 small and mid-size firms by Barcelona-based Freightos shows the scale of the impact. Nearly half of respondents said import costs have risen by 20% or more since tariffs took hold, while a similar share reported scaling back shipment volumes. That double hit is reshaping sourcing decisions and working capital planning at a pace not seen in years.
The pressure is falling unevenly. “Unfortunately, small and medium-sized businesses are bearing the brunt of the trade war,” said Adam Lewis, president of Clearit Customs Brokerage, in an official statement. Larger multinationals can hedge against tariff swings with diversified supply networks and financial tools, but smaller firms lack the same insulation. According to trade reports, sectors like apparel, electronics accessories, and home goods are particularly exposed because of their reliance on China-linked supply chains and low-margin retail models.
Trade Standing and Consumer Outlook Decline
The Freightos poll also revealed concerns about America’s shifting reputation abroad: 60% of respondents said Washington’s tariff push has weakened the country’s standing as a trading partner, compared with just 6% who saw an improvement. For many, the effect varies by sector and partner country, but the overall perception is negative.
The outlook for consumer demand is weakening in tandem. More than half of surveyed importers expect back-to-school and holiday sales to come in below trend, a sharp increase from the 35% who expected softer Memorial Day sales earlier in the year. That pessimism points to downstream risks for retailers and logistics operators alike. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that businesses are now bracing for “not just temporary disruption, but potentially long-term structural changes to international sourcing and pricing strategies.”
Beyond the Immediate Pain: What Comes Next
While the focus has been on near-term costs, an overlooked dimension is how tariffs accelerate structural shifts already underway. Recent data shows a steady rise in U.S. sourcing from Mexico and Southeast Asia, part of a broader diversification trend that predates the current White House. If tariffs remain a fixture, the competitive edge may increasingly tilt toward firms that have already invested in alternate supplier ecosystems. In this sense, today’s disruption could end up redrawing global trade patterns rather than just inflating prices at the border.
