Maersk says it could see earnings fall sharply this year as the return of commercial traffic through the Red Sea releases significant capacity back into the global container fleet. While the reopening of the corridor removes costly detours and improves schedule reliability, management expects the shift to weigh heavily on freight rates as supply overtakes demand.
According to Reuters, the carrier forecasts underlying EBITDA of between $4.5 billion and $7 billion in 2026, down from $9.53 billion in 2025. If results land near the lower end of that range, it would mark Maersk’s first operating loss in a decade, the Financial Times reports.
Capacity Returns Faster Than Demand Can Absorb
The Red Sea disruption has acted as a temporary shock absorber for the container market, soaking up vessel capacity as carriers rerouted ships around the Cape of Good Hope. That buffer is now beginning to unwind. As routes normalize, voyage times shorten and ships re-enter regular rotations, effectively expanding usable global capacity without a single new vessel being delivered.
“New ships are coming in, and at the same time, shipping through the Red Sea is likely to reopen, which will free up ship capacity,” said Maersk Chief Executive Officer Vincent Clerc during a February 5 press briefing. “All of this will put pressure on freight rates this year.”
Clerc estimates that a full reopening could free up 6% to 7% of global container capacity in 2026. That release coincides with one of the industry’s heaviest orderbooks in years, as vessels ordered during the pandemic boom continue to enter service. Trade reports have repeatedly flagged this convergence as a structural risk, particularly if demand growth remains modest.
Financial Discipline Tightens as Risks Multiply
Facing the prospect of oversupply, Maersk is already signaling a more defensive posture. The company plans to scale back its share buyback program and cut approximately 1,000 administrative roles, reflecting a broader effort to preserve cash and protect margins in a softer rate environment.
At the same time, the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile. In late January, Houthi forces warned they could resume attacks in the region amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran, highlighting that the Red Sea’s reopening is neither uniform nor guaranteed. Even so, Maersk is moving ahead with its transition plans and expects to reroute its ME11 service, linking India and the Middle East with Europe, back through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal by mid-February.
A Market That Will Reward Restraint
As capacity flows back into circulation, the next phase for container shipping is likely to be defined less by route access and more by restraint. Past cycles show that earnings durability hinges on how quickly carriers adjust sailing patterns, defer tonnage, and resist the urge to chase volume at marginal rates once network constraints ease. With large fleets now structurally embedded and balance sheets more exposed than in prior downturns, rate discipline and coordinated capacity management will matter as much as operational execution. The carriers that stabilize cash flows in this environment are unlikely to be those that move fastest, but those that recalibrate supply most deliberately.
