Global supply chains entered 2026 under mounting pressure from forces that no longer operate in isolation. According to a new risk assessment from Everstream Analytics, trade policy, climate volatility, infrastructure strain, and cyber conflict are converging into a narrower set of high-probability shocks that companies must now manage simultaneously rather than sequentially.
Trade Policy Becomes a Direct Cost Shock
At the top of the list is geopolitical fragmentation and the strategic use of trade regulations, which Everstream assigns a 97% threat probability. The report points to a sharp escalation in export controls and trade restrictions over the past two years, with controls on critical minerals doubling between 2023 and 2025 and broader restrictions rising 167%.
Concentration risk amplifies the impact. China accounts for roughly 85% of global rare earth processing capacity, while just four companies worldwide produce about 95% of semiconductor-grade silicon. In that context, Everstream warns that companies should plan for abrupt input-cost increases in the range of 15% to 25% as trade policy increasingly functions as a geopolitical lever rather than a predictable regulatory backdrop. The risk is not limited to tariffs; sudden licensing requirements, quotas, or retaliatory controls can reprice supply chains overnight.
Weather and Infrastructure Risks Are Compounding
Extreme weather ranks second with a 93% threat level, reflecting what the report describes as a shift from isolated climate events to overlapping and compounding disruptions. According to the analysis, the summer of 2025 alone generated €43 billion in weather-related losses across Europe. Flood disasters now average $42 billion annually, a 27% increase compared with 2000 levels.
Agricultural supply chains are among the most exposed. The global wheat harvest in 2025 came in 18% below average, while cacao prices surged roughly 300% after repeated weather shocks disrupted production. These dynamics point to sustained volatility across food, beverage, and consumer goods categories, particularly where sourcing flexibility is limited.
Closely linked is the risk from aging and under-invested infrastructure, which Everstream places at an 81% threat level. Global infrastructure needs are estimated at $106 trillion through 2040, including $36 trillion for logistics and transport networks alone. Recent events have underscored the fragility of those systems: three consecutive cyclones in Sri Lanka last November caused $615 million in highway damage and effectively shut down 96% of cross-border trade between Thailand and Malaysia. Port maintenance disruptions and systems outages are also rising, prompting Everstream to forecast at least one multibillion-dollar infrastructure failure in 2026.
Cyber Risk Moves From IT Issue to Network Disruption
Cyberattacks on logistics round out the list at a 70% threat level, but the trajectory is steep. Attacks targeting carriers, third-party logistics providers, and logistics service firms rose 61% in 2025, climbing to 213 incidents from 132 the year before. Since 2021, that represents a nearly tenfold increase.
The nature of the threat is also evolving. According to the report, state-sponsored actors linked to Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly targeting maritime and logistics infrastructure. Hybrid warfare tactics are now intersecting with commercial operations, as seen in rising GPS jamming and drone activity in the Baltic Sea, which handles about 15% of global cargo shipping. At current growth rates, Everstream expects cyber incidents affecting logistics networks to double again in 2026.
What Changes the Cost Curve
One detail often missed in disruption planning is timing. Trade actions, weather events, infrastructure outages, and cyber incidents increasingly arrive mid-cycle, after inventory has been positioned, transport booked, and production locked. Recent insurance and carrier data show that a large share of loss severity now comes from forced rework inside committed plans rather than from the initial shock itself. Companies that shortened planning freeze windows in 2025, by delaying final routing, carrier selection, or supplier release, absorbed disruptions with lower write-offs and fewer service penalties. Resilience in 2026 is being shaped less by where networks are built and more by how late binding decisions are allowed to remain open.
