As new tariff actions hit steel, aluminum and select tech, U.S. importers pull back on ocean volumes and pivot to air for time-sensitive cargo. Dimerco Express Group’s September 2025 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report points to a sharp swing in modal mix, a rerouting of export origins away from China, and fresh policy risks that complicate fourth-quarter inventory plays.
Ocean Pullback Meets Airfreight Surge
Containerized U.S. imports are projected to decline 19–21% year over year from September through December, part of an expected 5.6% drop in total U.S. import volumes for 2025. The retreat follows front-loading earlier in the year and a softer demand backdrop, with schedule cancellations (about 7% of sailings) used to manage overcapacity on transpacific lanes. Despite spot upticks at times, average container rates have drifted lower, and volumes at North American ports, especially the U.S. West Coast, remain subdued as tariff uncertainty reorders cargo flows.
By contrast, airfreight is entering a robust peak. Airlines have already added Transpacific Eastbound capacity to absorb rising shipments of AI servers, consumer electronics, and other high-tech goods. Export lift from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia is now outpacing China, signaling a shift in regional origin dominance as manufacturers diversify. Shanghai Pudong’s new direct-transfer service, which enables interline moves inside the terminal without bonded “U-turn” facilities, is adding useful throughput and helping relieve pressure at origins such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, and Penang during the September rush.
Recent disruptions have tested resilience across the network. Pacific flight paths were curtailed in August by volcanic ash events near the Kamchatka Peninsula, tightening belly capacity before gradually normalizing. In China, temporary operational limits around the Sept. 3 military commemoration affected acceptance of some export cargo requiring 24-hour cool storage, reinforcing the need for early bookings and alternate routings. Meanwhile, e-commerce seasonality and ocean delays are pushing more urgent cargo to air out of U.S. gateways such as Chicago, where reduced passenger belly space is keeping rates firm.
Tariff Actions Reshape Routing and Cost
Policy developments are amplifying planning risk. According to Dimerco’s update, the U.S. has expanded Section 232 steel and aluminum coverage to 407 additional derivative products effective Aug. 18, 2025, at a 50% ad valorem rate on the metal content; duties are not eligible for drawback, and Foreign Trade Zone entries under privileged status are included. A 25% reciprocal tariff has taken effect on India with narrow transit-timing exemptions, while a separate review cycle could add more HTS codes to Section 232 lists later this year. The previous China tariff extension was rolled forward by 90 days through Nov. 10, sustaining uncertainty for fourth-quarter orders.
Two additional changes will touch day-to-day operations. First, the end of de minimis treatment on Aug. 29 brings new courier fees and possible clearance delays; importers using expedited channels should ensure formal-entry data readiness and proper use of Chapter 98 HTS codes for samples and prototypes. Second, Dimerco flags potential 100% tariffs on imported semiconductors used in consumer electronics, companies committing to U.S. chipmaking could be exempt, warranting rapid scenario testing for component sourcing. Canada, for its part, has aligned tariff policy with USMCA and removed tariffs on U.S. goods beginning Sept. 1, 2025, a modest offset for cross-border flows.
Ocean carriers are structurally adjusting in response. Network trims, including reductions on Asia–U.S. East Coast loops and reconfigured round-the-world services, aim to better utilize tonnage as profitability weakens on long-haul trades. Intra-Asia spot rates have softened, while Asia–Europe rates continue to face pressure from excess capacity despite seasonal demand and port congestion. On the rail side, China–Europe express capacity is tightening as e-commerce shifts from the ocean, with Xi’an express services nearing full booking and transit times to Duisburg running 18–20 days.
Act on the Policy Clock, Not the Calendar
Rather than planning around “peak season” as a fixed calendar event, treat tariff decision points (e.g., Section 232 list updates and the Nov. 10 China extension horizon) as the true scheduling anchors. Build option value: hold dual routings (air vs. expedited ocean), pre-file formal entries to avoid de minimis shocks, and pre-qualify alternates in Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia for electronics and server cargo. Recent PMI readings show global manufacturing dipping back below 50, which means capacity may be available, but the cheapest space won’t necessarily align with the narrowest tariff window.
