Companies may be quieter about their sustainability ambitions, but they’re not retreating from them. Bain & Co.’s new 2026 paper and packaging outlook shows that brands continue to invest heavily in sustainable packaging, even as public statements have softened. With regulation now reshaping the economics of materials, Bain warns that pulling back would amount to “a serious strategic miscalculation.” The sharper signal: sustainability has shifted from brand positioning to supply-chain execution, and customers are starting to vote with their purchasing decisions.
Behind the Curtain, Sustainability Work Is Accelerating
While some companies have reduced external messaging, Bain reports that sustainability remains a defining consideration in packaging procurement. In a 2025 survey of 125 packaging customers, 59% said they would switch suppliers within three years if sustainability expectations weren’t met, a notable indicator that performance metrics now outweigh aspirational targets. Bain argues that the “era of setting ambitions is over,” with customers falling behind on commitments and suppliers under pressure to demonstrate measurable progress.
The outlook highlights how regulatory tightening across major markets is forcing faster redesign cycles. Extended producer responsibility rules, recycled-content mandates, and emerging chemical-recycling standards are shaping investment decisions at scale. These shifts sit alongside broader industry themes, including AI-enabled forecasting, packaging network redesign, and an active M&A pipeline, that are redefining how packaging companies plan for 2026 and beyond.
Plastic Dominance Meets Mounting Substitution Pressure
Bain estimates that of the roughly 8 trillion units of consumer packaging produced globally, about 60% are plastic and 20% are fiber. That split is now under meaningful pressure from regulators and consumers. Categories such as cups, lids, clamshells, and take-out containers, long dominated by plastic, are expected to face the greatest scrutiny, creating new openings for fiber-based alternatives.
Consumer preferences reinforce this trajectory. Survey respondents in the U.S. and globally expressed stronger favorability for paper and glass at grocery shelves. Yet recyclability, not “plastic-free”, ranked as the top sustainability attribute. That aligns with recent industry research showing that consumers prioritize materials that can be processed within existing waste systems. Recycled content also scored highly, though Bain cautions that suppliers are struggling to keep pace with demand, with a 30% to 40% shortfall projected for some recycled resins by 2030.
Fiber producers, meanwhile, are stepping up innovation to compete more directly with plastic. Improved barrier coatings, moisture resistance, and forming technologies are allowing fiber substrates to encroach on categories once considered too performance-sensitive to convert. Trade reports show a marked increase in pilot programs aimed at replacing single-use plastic components with advanced fiber designs.
What Comes Next for Packaging Economics
One factor gaining prominence, but still under-examined, is how recycled-material scarcity is beginning to influence long-term contracting behavior. In markets such as PET and polyolefins, trade reports show buyers locking in multi-year access to high-quality recycled feedstock, treating it less as an environmental attribute and more as a core input with tightening availability. As more regions adopt minimum recycled-content mandates, this shift toward supply-security contracting could reshape pricing power and investment priorities across the packaging ecosystem, especially for companies that once viewed sustainability largely through a compliance lens.
