Despite an unsteady macroeconomic environment, warehouse automation order intake increased by 7% in 2025, according to new findings from Interact Analysis. The uplift was less a signal of resurgent demand and more a reflection of rising project costs, with steel and labor inflation driving larger contract values across the sector. Retail-led megaprojects, announced throughout 2025, added further momentum and helped offset sluggish activity elsewhere.
Short-Term Gains Mask Underlying Investment Caution
The report notes that the current cycle is marked by divergence: higher order intake numbers supported by inflationary project pricing on one side, and restrained long-term sentiment on the other. Steel prices, one of the biggest cost drivers in large-scale automation builds, are expected to normalize, narrowing future project values even if deployment volumes remain stable. Interact Analysis points to political uncertainty in the United States ahead of the 2028 election as another factor dampening forward commitments, particularly for multiyear fulfillment and distribution center expansions.
Several sectors continue to anchor the medium-term growth profile. General merchandise, durable manufacturing, and food and beverage are projected to retain strong automation pipelines. Grocery automation, however, is expected to decelerate in the U.S. toward decade’s end as major distribution programs reach completion. According to industry data, parcel networks are also expected to regain momentum, helped by sustained investment in last-mile automation and throughput optimization.
Regional Growth Outlook Splits as Cost Structures Rebalance
The three core regions show diverging trajectories. EMEA leads the global forecast with expected annual growth of roughly 7% between 2025 and 2030, helped by relatively lower exposure to steel and labor inflation. Yet the region is far from uniform: while the Netherlands, Northern Europe, and the UK continue to expand investments, countries such as Germany are seeing softer demand as manufacturing footprints migrate to more cost-competitive markets.
The Americas follow with a projected 6% annual growth rate, shaped by maturing CapEx cycles among large retailers and a more selective stance toward greenfield facilities. APAC sits at around 5%, weighed down by an ongoing slowdown in domestic Chinese demand. The region experienced an estimated -8% revenue contraction in 2025, though several Southeast Asian territories continued to post resilient growth as production shifts gradually rebalance.
Where Cost Cycles Give Way to Throughput Expectations
As pricing pressures ease, the dynamics shaping automation decisions will shift toward how fast systems can adapt rather than how much they cost to build. Recent trade reports show a growing focus on software-led orchestration, particularly tools that synchronize labor, robotics, and storage density in real time. That pivot places greater scrutiny on vendors whose value rests on mechanical scale rather than operational responsiveness. The next phase of investment will reward automation ecosystems that can match throughput volatility with precision, not just capital intensity.
