Route planning has become one of the most consequential levers in logistics. Decisions about lanes, ports, sequencing, and asset utilization now shape fuel consumption, delivery reliability, and cost exposure as much as fleet composition does. While alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) remain central to long-term decarbonization plans, many operators are reluctant to rely on them as a near-term solution.
Research from Wincanton, now part of GXO Logistics, highlights why. Only 25% of surveyed supply chain decision-makers expect AFVs to become affordable within the next four to six years, while 54% of UK businesses doubt they will meet net-zero targets on current trajectories. The data reflects a sector caught between ambition and balance-sheet reality, with capital-intensive vehicle transitions competing against near-term cost pressures.
Route Planning as a First-Wave Decarbonization Tool
Where momentum is building is in route optimization. Wincanton’s research shows that 37% of companies that reduced CO₂ emissions also lowered operating costs, suggesting that emissions gains and financial performance are not mutually exclusive. The common thread is better network design: cutting empty miles, improving load density, and aligning delivery flows across customers and partners.
Digital platforms are playing a growing role here. Wincanton’s EyeQ system, for example, identifies unnecessary mileage and inefficiencies across routes, reducing fuel burn without requiring new vehicles. According to trade reports, such tools are increasingly being paired with collaborative delivery models that allow operators to share infrastructure and capacity, improving utilization at scale.
This approach aligns with findings from Deloitte’s Pathways to decarbonisation: Heavy road transport report. Deloitte positions route and network optimization as a “first-wave” decarbonization measure, capable of delivering near-term impact while longer-term vehicle transitions mature. Electrifying predictable short-haul routes, redesigning key lanes, and improving stop density can yield rapid emissions reductions in markets with supportive policy frameworks.
The report emphasizes a data-first foundation. Detailed modelling, often using digital twins, allows operators to map emissions and cost baselines by route, factoring in distance, stop frequency, speed profiles, geography, and predictability. From there, fleets can prioritize which internal combustion engine vehicles to retire first, based on lifecycle cost, charging or fueling access, and route suitability.
Total Landed Cost Adds a Critical Layer
Route efficiency is not purely a transport problem. Customs complexity and trade compliance increasingly shape which routes are viable from both cost and risk perspectives. John Wegman, CEO of Customs Support Group, notes that optimization must extend beyond distance and speed to include total landed cost.
Duties, VAT, handling fees, and clearance reliability all influence the true cost of a route. Using data and AI-driven insights, Wegman says, companies can assess predictability and disruption risk, ensuring goods move faster with fewer costly delays. Integrated customs data also enables rapid rerouting when congestion or policy changes disrupt established lanes.
Recent congestion at Dutch and Belgian ports illustrates the point. According to Customs Support Group, clients with centralized, pan-European customs processes were able to divert shipments to alternative ports with minimal friction because compliance was already embedded upstream. The result was improved on-time performance and lower storage costs, even amid volatile conditions.
Infrastructure availability further complicates routing decisions. Deloitte recommends blending depot-based charging with renewable-powered public charging and preparing for future hydrogen corridors. Over time, route maps will need to evolve alongside this infrastructure, particularly as urban electrification accelerates in last-mile delivery.
The challenge is amplified by industry fragmentation. Deloitte estimates that around 90% of logistics companies operate fewer than 10 trucks, limiting their ability to invest individually in advanced routing tools or alternative fuel infrastructure. Collaboration, through shared networks, pooled loads, or co-funded refueling assets, emerges as a practical way to achieve scale.
Where Route Discipline Becomes a Capital Signal
Networks that can already demonstrate stable lanes, predictable dwell times, and high asset utilization are better positioned to justify investments in electrification, HVO supply, or shared charging infrastructure when those options become available. Where routing remains fragmented or poorly modeled, even lower-cost alternative fuels are harder to deploy at scale, pushing decarbonization efforts into limited pilots rather than network-wide execution.
