Shippers are entering 2026 with expectations of continued freight movement, but the mood is notably more restrained than in prior years. A new survey from Averitt points to stable demand paired with heightened caution, as companies balance volume forecasts against persistent policy, cost, and execution risks.
More than 1,000 supply chain, logistics, and procurement professionals across North America participated in Averitt’s annual State of the North American Supply Chain Survey, offering a snapshot of how organizations are planning for the year ahead. The results suggest confidence in baseline demand, but little appetite for aggressive expansion or speculative bets.
Volume Expectations Hold, but Momentum Slows
A majority of respondents, 59%, expect shipping volumes to increase in 2026. While still positive, that figure represents the weakest growth outlook recorded in the survey over the past decade. Another 37% anticipate volumes will remain flat, and just 3.6% foresee a decline.
Taken together, the data points to an industry preparing for continuity rather than acceleration. Companies are not bracing for a contraction, but neither are they positioning for a sharp rebound. Capacity constraints, service reliability, and network resilience continue to shape planning assumptions, limiting how much upside organizations are willing to model into their forecasts.
This tempered outlook aligns with broader freight indicators entering 2026, where modest demand improvement has been offset by uneven regional performance and lingering volatility in spot and contract markets, according to recent trade reporting.
Tariffs Continue to Shape Operating Decisions
Trade policy remains a central variable. More than half of survey respondents said tariffs have had a negative impact on their operations, while only a small minority reported positive effects. A significant share indicated uncertainty, highlighting how difficult it remains to fully quantify downstream cost and sourcing implications.
Rather than triggering pullbacks, tariff pressure appears to be reshaping how companies plan. “Shippers aren’t pulling back, but they are planning differently,” said Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing at Averitt. “What we’re seeing is confidence with guardrails. Organizations still expect demand to hold, but they’re building strategies around execution risk, tariff pressure, and reduced margin for error rather than assuming ideal conditions.”
That shift is visible in network design choices, contracting strategies, and a greater emphasis on optionality, diversifying lanes, carriers, and routing scenarios to reduce exposure to sudden policy or cost shocks.
Risk Is Migrating Into the Middle of the Network
One nuance that deserves more attention in 2026 planning is where exposure is concentrating. Trade data and recent carrier disclosures show fewer shocks at the network edges and more friction emerging in the middle, transfer points, regional cross-docks, inland ports, and mode-switch nodes where small timing or cost changes compound quickly. Tariff adjustments and modest volume growth both amplify pressure in these zones, even when headline demand appears stable. Organizations that continue to evaluate risk only at origin or destination may miss where variability is actually forming. A closer look at mid-network performance data, dwell times, handoff reliability, and accessorial creep, can surface constraints earlier and provide levers that are still actionable before they harden into service failures.
