The confrontation involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is sending shockwaves through global ocean logistics, forcing carriers and shippers to rethink route planning, pricing structures, and contract strategies. Industry analysts speaking at TPM26 by S&P Global say the situation is unlikely to trigger disruption on the scale of the pandemic or the earlier Red Sea crisis, but the combined effect of route deviations, fuel volatility, and congestion risks is already reshaping the shipping market outlook for 2026.
In early March, more than 700 vessels were effectively stalled as the Strait of Hormuz, the critical channel linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, remained closed. According to Ocean Network Express CEO Jeremy Nixon, roughly 10% of the global container fleet was affected by the disruption.
Even so, the broader capacity impact remains limited relative to previous crises. Speaking at TPM26, Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen estimated that around 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) could be affected through cargo currently aboard vessels or booked from Gulf ports over the next 90 days.
From a global supply–demand perspective, Jensen said the disruption tightens capacity but does not fundamentally alter the market balance. For Gulf countries, however, the effects could be severe due to limited alternative overland transport options.
Red Sea Normalization Faces Another Delay
Expectations that container services might gradually return to the Red Sea have effectively disappeared for the near future. Since late 2023, most carriers have avoided the Suez Canal corridor because of attacks on commercial vessels linked to Houthi militants in Yemen. Instead, ships have been rerouted around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and fuel costs to Asia–Europe voyages.
Before the Iran escalation, some carriers had begun cautiously exploring service resumptions. A.P. Moller – Maersk reintroduced its MECL service structure earlier this year, while other operators monitored security conditions.
That momentum has now reversed. Jensen noted that companies including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have stepped back from any near-term return plans. Even if hostilities ease quickly, carriers are likely to wait months before reconsidering Red Sea transits. In practical terms, that means route diversions around southern Africa will remain a structural feature of the 2026 container shipping market.
The extended detours tighten effective shipping capacity because vessels spend longer on each voyage. According to trade analysts, these longer sailing times reduce the number of round trips a ship can complete annually, which indirectly supports freight rates.
Fuel Costs and Congestion Trigger New Surcharges
Pricing pressures are also building through the cost side of the shipping equation.
Jensen told TPM26 attendees that the industry is likely to deploy multiple new surcharges as the crisis unfolds, ranging from emergency conflict fees to bunker fuel adjustments. Oil markets have already reacted sharply; Brent crude has approached $90 per barrel, raising operating costs across transport modes.
Even shipping lanes far removed from the Middle East are expected to feel the impact. Fuel price increases feed directly into bunker adjustment factors, and congestion created by rerouted vessels can cascade across global networks.
Those ripple effects could reach Pacific trade routes, including Asia–U.S. services. Congestion in Asian ports or transshipment hubs often spreads quickly through vessel rotations, affecting schedules and costs for unrelated corridors.
Jensen noted that bunker fuel surcharges are typically recalculated quarterly with a one-month notice period. That means the recent spike in oil prices is likely to be reflected in carrier pricing later in 2026, even if the immediate conflict eases.
Freight Contracts Tilt Back Toward Carriers
The geopolitical shift has also reshaped negotiations for annual shipping contracts. At the start of the year, many analysts expected modest overcapacity in container shipping due to a wave of new vessels entering service. That outlook had encouraged shippers to push for lower contract rates.
The latest disruption has changed the tone of those discussions. According to Jensen, several carriers have slowed or paused contract finalizations following the escalation in the Middle East.
The reason is straightforward: uncertainty favors the side controlling capacity. If route diversions continue and fuel costs rise, carriers may regain pricing leverage after months of downward pressure on rates. Still, the direct impact on U.S. imports may remain limited. A March update from the Global Port Tracker, produced by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, noted that relatively little U.S.-bound container cargo originates in the Gulf region.
However, the report warned that higher oil and gasoline prices could feed into broader inflationary pressure. If rising fuel costs weaken consumer spending or manufacturing activity, import demand could soften later in the year.
Network Adjustments Tend to Outlast the Crisis
Container shipping networks rarely revert immediately once a disruption fades. After the 2021 Suez Canal blockage and the rerouting triggered by Red Sea attacks beginning in 2023, carriers kept revised sailing schedules and capacity buffers in place for extended periods while they rebuilt schedule reliability. The same pattern may unfold again. Once fleets and service rotations adapt to longer voyages and higher fuel exposure, restoring earlier routes usually requires months of stable conditions and coordinated schedule resets across alliances. Freight costs therefore often settle around the network structure carriers adopt during the disruption rather than returning quickly to pre-crisis pricing patterns.
