TD Cowen survey reveals cautious optimism amid ongoing freight recession.
The U.S. trucking sector is eyeing a potential recovery in spot rates by the second half of 2025, according to a recent survey conducted by financial analysts at TD Cowen. While spot rates have shown slight improvement from their two-year lows, contract rate expectations remain subdued, reflecting the prolonged freight recession.
Despite this, the industry consensus leans toward a rebound, albeit with tempered optimism compared to previous surveys. The latest data reveals that 39% of respondents anticipate a spot rate recovery in the second quarter of 2025, a slight dip from 41% in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, 21% foresee recovery in the third quarter, marking an increase from 14% in the last survey.
Economic Optimism on the Rise
Beyond spot rate expectations, the survey highlighted a surge in economic confidence among trucking industry stakeholders. Business growth expectations reached their highest level in five quarters, with 67% of respondents expressing greater confidence in the economy compared to three months ago. This marks a significant jump from the 26% recorded in the previous quarter, reflecting a post-election boost in sentiment.
Cautious Optimism Amid Challenges
While the trucking industry remains hopeful for a mid-2025 recovery, the tempered optimism underscores the challenges of navigating a prolonged freight recession. The rise in economic confidence is a positive sign, but the industry must remain vigilant, adapting to shifting market dynamics to ensure sustained growth. For supply chain leaders, this period offers an opportunity to reassess strategies and prepare for the anticipated market rebound.
