Nearly 70% of global suppliers expect revenue declines from tariffs in 2025, with half planning price hikes, according to new Coupa research. The findings show how procurement strategies, supplier footprints, and consumer behavior are shifting under mounting trade pressure.
Suppliers Raise Prices, Brace for Revenue Declines
Tariff uncertainty is no longer a background risk, it’s reshaping supply chains in real time. Coupa’s latest research shows that 69% of suppliers expect lower revenue this year due to tariff exposure, while 49% plan to increase prices in response. The pressure is particularly acute in the U.S., where 42% of suppliers name tariffs as the top risk heading into the year-end peak season.
Consumer-facing sectors are bearing the brunt. In toys and games, 60% of suppliers cite tariffs as the leading external threat, while in electronics, the figure stands at 50%. To insulate against disruption, 46% of suppliers are stockpiling inventory, and nearly a third of electronics firms are shifting production back to domestic markets, a move reflecting the broader resurgence of onshoring as a hedge against geopolitical friction.
While most price hikes are expected to stay below 10%, the ripple effect is already being felt downstream. Coupa estimates that consumers may see household costs rise by at least $300 per month, prompting a pullback in discretionary spending just as many brands rely on seasonal surges. More than half of buyers surveyed acknowledge that trade policy will weigh on financial performance this year, creating margin pressure across procurement operations.
Sourcing Strategies Recalibrate Amid Trade Disruption
Procurement teams are actively redrawing sourcing maps in an effort to stabilize supply. Three-quarters of buyers are increasing or planning to increase nearshoring, while 61% are moving toward onshoring initiatives to reduce exposure to volatile trade corridors. Despite this shift, 56% still report growth in offshoring, underscoring the complexity of balancing resilience with cost efficiency.
Where companies source from is also shifting. Sourcing from China has dropped 36%, followed by the U.S. (29%) and Germany (23%), suggesting a trend toward diversification rather than simple reshoring. With price stability and supply continuity now top priorities, buyers are placing greater weight on reliability (60%), consistent pricing (57%), and regulatory compliance (42%) when selecting suppliers.
This recalibration isn’t happening in a vacuum. Consumers themselves are adjusting behaviors, with 54% hunting for essential discounts and 67% switching retailers to manage household budgets. As brands and procurement teams attempt to navigate these changes, cost-consciousness is fast becoming a structural variable, not a temporary response.
The Rising Value of Supplier Agility
The focus on tariff exposure has prompted a flurry of sourcing realignments, but the greater long-term test lies in how companies manage supplier relationships under uncertainty. While location shifts can reduce headline risk, resilience increasingly depends on how well businesses model disruption scenarios and adapt their supplier mix dynamically. AI-driven sourcing engines that account for margin volatility, logistics delays, and compliance requirements may prove more impactful than geography alone. In a climate where trade rules shift faster than supply chains can rebuild, operational agility is emerging as the new baseline for competitiveness.
