European supply chains are operating in a state of extended alert. A.P. Moller–Maersk’s latest survey of more than 900 companies across the region shows that the polycrisis environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions, trade realignment, tariff shifts, and security risks, will remain a defining business variable through at least 2027. Nearly 80% of respondents expect continued disruption, while close to half express deep concern about geopolitical volatility.
The sentiment reflects the collision of multiple forces: renewed tariff measures in the United States and Europe, Red Sea routing disruptions, and growing bloc-to-bloc trade realignment. According to trade reports, rerouted container traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has extended transit times and tightened vessel capacity on key Europe-Asia corridors, heightening pressure on supply planning.
Resilience Spending Shifts from Theory to Execution
In response, companies are scaling resilience programs that once sat on future roadmaps. Three in four survey participants say they have already diversified sourcing footprints or plan to do so, a sharp rise from 53% in Maersk’s 2024 survey. The shift aligns with known trends showing European importers expanding into Türkiye, India, and Southeast Asia as part of nearshoring and “China-plus-one” strategies.
Investment is also flowing toward supply chain visibility, scenario planning, and digital tools. Sixty percent of respondents report boosting agility and transparency efforts, and four in five are strengthening ties with logistics providers and suppliers. Maersk executives say customers are engaging earlier in network design discussions, particularly to plan for tariff changes and regulatory shifts.
“Now is not the time to lament the cards we’ve been dealt – now is the time to take action and grow,” said Aymeric Chandavoine, President Europe at A.P. Moller–Maersk, in an official statement. Companies that remain passive, he added, risk ceding ground in a still-moving competitive landscape.
Tariff Uncertainty Drives Customs Digitization
Tariffs remain a top concern, with nearly half of surveyed firms expecting import-export cost fluctuations and 43% bracing for increased duties. Maersk’s Global Head of Trade & Customs Consulting, Lars Karlsson, noted that businesses equipped with centralized, real-time customs data reacted far faster to the U.S. tariff measures introduced earlier this year.
“You need to be proactive and become more agile in a geopolitical environment like today,” he said, emphasizing the value of digital control over customs data. Companies that quickly integrated data into Maersk’s Trade and Tariff Studio platform, Karlsson added, secured better readiness for subsequent tariff shifts than those adopting a wait-and-see posture.
The findings mirror wider European industry efforts to build digital customs capability ahead of incoming EU regulatory changes, including new carbon-linked trade reporting rules and digital product passport requirements that will reshape cross-border data flows.
The Coming Shift Toward Policy-Responsive Supply Chains
A growing area of focus that could reshape strategy over the next 18 months is policy-responsiveness, building supply chains that can adjust as fast as governments do. With tariff resets in the U.S. and Europe arriving on accelerated timelines and new trade security measures emerging across semiconductor, battery, and critical-minerals sectors, companies are starting to invest in operating models that treat regulatory change as a planning input rather than a disruption event. The firms positioning most effectively are pairing customs digitization with scenario teams able to model route, duty, and supplier shifts before policies land. As trade frameworks continue to evolve, the competitive edge may increasingly sit with businesses that can read and react to policy signals as operational data.
