Economic uncertainty and widening income disparities are beginning to show up more clearly in U.S. supply chains. New data from December 2025 suggests logistics activity is losing momentum, even as headline retail sales figures mask a growing divergence in who is actually spending.
The latest reading of the Logistics Managers’ Index points to a slowdown that is less about seasonal noise and more about a structurally uneven recovery. Beneath the surface, inventory drawdowns, softer freight demand, and diverging consumer behavior are reshaping how capacity and capital are being deployed across the network.
Logistics Indicators Slip Despite Holiday Demand
The Logistics Managers’ Index, compiled by Florida Atlantic University, fell to 54.2 in December, down from 57.3 a year earlier and marking its lowest level in 13 months. While a reading above 50 still signals expansion, the deceleration was broad-based, spanning warehousing, transportation, and inventories.
Inventory metrics were particularly volatile. The LMI’s inventory index dropped more than 17 points month over month to 35.1, reflecting a sharp drawdown during the peak holiday period. FAU researchers attributed much of that decline to stronger-than-expected seasonal fulfillment, rather than a sudden collapse in demand. Even so, the magnitude of the swing underscores how tightly inventories were managed heading into year-end.
Holiday retail sales did provide a lift, but the composition of that spending mattered. FAU researchers noted that much of the strength came from higher-income households, while lower-income consumers remained constrained. “At a high level, the strong sales are a good sign,” said Steven Carnovale, associate professor of supply chain management at FAU. “The lingering question is which segment of the consumer market is buying.”
A K-Shaped Economy Reaches the Supply Chain
That question has become central to how economists and operators interpret current logistics signals. The concept of a “K-shaped” economy, where higher-income households continue to spend while lower-income groups pull back, has gained traction over the past year, and December’s data reinforced that narrative.
Speaking at National Retail Federation’s 2026 Big Show in New York on January 13, Bank of America senior economist David Tinsley said income growth in 2025 rose roughly 3% for higher-income households, compared with just 1% for lower earners. That divergence helps explain why aggregate sales figures can look healthy even as logistics volumes soften in mass-market categories.
Real estate and investment management firm JLL observed similar patterns ahead of the holidays. Households earning more than $150,000 increased planned holiday spending by 26% in 2025, while households earning under $50,000 cut spending by nearly 25%. The gap was echoed by Walmart CFO John Rainey, who said at a Morgan Stanley conference in December that wage growth disparities across income brackets are now as wide as they have been in almost a decade.
Why Uneven Demand Changes Network Decisions
What makes this cycle different is how quickly uneven demand feeds into logistics planning. Premium and discretionary categories tend to move through faster, higher-margin channels, while value-oriented freight, often heavier and more cost-sensitive, has been slower to recover. That mix affects everything from warehouse utilization to carrier pricing power, even when top-line retail sales appear resilient.
The risk for operators is misreading aggregate indicators and overcommitting capacity in segments that are no longer growing evenly. Recent data shows that inventory discipline and selective capacity deployment, rather than blanket expansion, are becoming the default response. As spending concentrates at the top end of the income spectrum, logistics networks are being asked to serve two very different demand profiles at once, one still expanding, the other increasingly cautious.
