Shippers brace for a transformative year as capacity surges and alliances reshape the competitive landscape.
The global container shipping industry is navigating a turbulent period, with the reopening of the Suez Canal and the introduction of the Gemini alliance poised to disrupt operations. According to AlixPartners’ 2025 Container Shipping Outlook Report, “Navigating the Crosscurrents,” these developments, coupled with potential new tariffs, could significantly alter the supply-demand dynamics in the sector.
Capacity Surge and Market Shifts
The reopening of the Suez Canal and the resolution of the Red Sea crisis are expected to release substantial capacity back into the market. This, combined with a record influx of new-build vessels—200 ships in 2025 alone—will likely upset the delicate supply-demand balance. The report highlights that carriers ordered an unprecedented amount of TEU in 2024, setting the stage for a capacity surge over the next five years.
Additionally, the shift to three major alliances, alongside MSC operating independently, marks a notable reduction in market concentration. With a projected 9-10% increase in capacity, competition among carriers is expected to intensify, reshaping global shipping networks.
Tariffs and Economic Impacts
The potential imposition of new tariffs by the U.S. and other major trading nations adds another layer of complexity. Marc Iampieri, global co-leader of AlixPartners’ Logistics & Transportation practice, warns of a “triple whammy” effect if tariffs coincide with the Suez reopening and Gemini alliance operations. While shippers enjoyed a record year in 2024 due to tailwinds from Suez diversions and industrial actions, the landscape in 2025 could shift dramatically, with rates potentially falling as quickly as they rose.
A New Era for Container Shipping
The container shipping industry is entering a transformative phase, driven by capacity expansion, alliance restructuring, and geopolitical factors. For supply chain leaders, this underscores the importance of agility and strategic planning to navigate these crosscurrents effectively. As the market evolves, staying ahead of these changes will be critical to maintaining competitive advantage.
