Global air freight spot rates declined for a second straight month in June, according to new data from market analytics firm Xeneta. Tariff uncertainty, softening demand, and surplus capacity are weighing heavily on pricing. Despite modest first-half growth, the industry is bracing for a tougher back half of the year.
Market Fundamentals Shift as Tariff Clock Ticks Down
According to Xeneta’s latest airfreight market analysis, spot rates fell 4% year over year in June to $2.50 per kilogram, with dynamic load factor sliding to 56%. On most major lanes, rates softened: Southeast Asia to North America plunged 11%, while even backhaul legs saw double-digit declines. The lone bright spot was Northeast Asia to North America, where rates rose 8%, driven more by tariff anxiety than underlying demand strength.
Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, cautioned against assuming soft rates benefit shippers. “When consumer confidence is under pressure and cost-of-living remains high, lower rates are little consolation,” he said in an official statement. Looming U.S. tariff hikes, expected to resume August 1 following a 90-day pause, are already distorting demand patterns and procurement behavior.
The overall volume of global air cargo was up just 1% YoY in June, while capacity increased by 2%. This marks the first time in 19 months that supply has overtaken demand. Compounding matters, volatile fuel prices and a weakening dollar have had a muted impact on freight rates, with market-driven pricing overpowering cost-push dynamics.
Procurement Shifts Highlight Strategic Uncertainty
As spot market volatility persists, shippers are recalibrating how they secure airfreight. Xeneta observed an 8-point YoY increase in mid-term (3–6 month) contracts during Q2, replacing longer-term deals with more agile arrangements. However, the share of 3-month tenders fell 12 points versus Q1, suggesting that earlier commitments may have been driven more by urgency than confidence.
Meanwhile, nearly half of all forwarder volumes remained in the spot market in June. That 46% share reflects a clear risk posture: flexibility over fixed commitments, and an expectation that rates could fall further before stabilizing. Transatlantic lanes saw modest YoY gains, though these were exceptions amid broader softness.
Xeneta attributed some of the rate disparity to e-commerce flows, especially on Asia–Europe routes where digital sales have propped up volumes despite capacity realignment. But backhaul legs continued to underperform, highlighting persistent trade asymmetry.
How Tender Timing May Become a Hidden Risk Variable
While most headlines center on rate declines or geopolitical shocks, one quiet shift deserves more attention: the blurring of peak-season tendering cycles. As procurement windows stretch or shorten in reaction to tariff risk, fuel volatility, or demand uncertainty, historical timing benchmarks are losing predictive value. That volatility may reduce the effectiveness of procurement analytics and create mismatches between service reliability needs and contract structures. In this environment, strategic misalignment, rather than just pricing pressure, could become the more costly error.
