The U.S. food supply chain relies on immigrant labor to keep shelves stocked and dinner tables full. Disrupting this system isn’t just an economic risk—it could fundamentally change the way America grows, produces, and eats.
Donald Trump’s recent campaign pledge to launch “the largest deportation program in American history” has raised alarms across industries, but its impact on America’s food system may be the most overlooked. The food supply chain is a complex ecosystem, and at its core are the 2.1 million immigrant workers who plant, harvest, process, and distribute food across the country. Deporting these workers wouldn’t just cause temporary disruptions—it could spark a lasting reconfiguration of the way America’s food is grown and delivered, with far-reaching consequences for businesses, consumers, and communities.
The Labor Equation: What Happens When the Workforce Disappears?
Immigrants are disproportionately responsible for the work that sustains the food system. While 14% of all U.S. workers are immigrants, that figure jumps to 21% for food-related roles. At the heart of agriculture, 42% of farmworkers are undocumented, though advocacy groups suggest this figure is far higher in agricultural states like California. These workers perform jobs that most American-born workers historically avoid—roles that are physically demanding, poorly paid, and often outside the protection of labor laws.
If mass deportations reduce the immigrant workforce, there will be no quick fix. Domestic labor shortages are already a significant challenge in agriculture, where farmers struggle to find workers willing to do the job, even at higher wages. Automation, often touted as a solution, is not yet capable of replacing human labor in key agricultural roles like produce harvesting. Crops left unharvested translate to direct financial losses for farmers and rising costs for consumers.
In meatpacking, dairy, and processing facilities—industries already plagued by labor shortages—removing workers at scale would exacerbate inefficiencies and production slowdowns. This isn’t just a question of higher prices at the grocery store; it’s about supply chain stability. America could find itself increasingly reliant on imports to make up for domestic shortfalls, reshaping supply chains and creating new vulnerabilities to global disruptions.
Economic Repercussions: The Ripple Effect Across Industries
Food production is a delicate balancing act. Reducing the available labor force doesn’t just slow operations; it forces businesses to make hard decisions. Some farms and processing facilities would scale back production or shut down entirely, unable to maintain profitability with fewer workers and higher wage demands. Others may accelerate investments in automation, but such transitions take years and significant capital, leaving short-term gaps that will ripple through the economy.
Food service and retail sectors would not be immune. As prices rise, restaurants and grocery stores—particularly those that cater to lower-income consumers—would feel the pressure. Communities dependent on agriculture and food production as economic lifelines would face job losses, reduced spending power, and stagnating local economies.
At the consumer level, the consequences would be tangible. Prices for produce, meat, and dairy would rise, while product availability could become inconsistent. For families already struggling with inflation, this would further strain household budgets, pushing basic goods out of reach for many.
