How New Trade Policies Could Reshape Global Air Freight and Cross-Border Logistics
The U.S. air cargo market is bracing for potential disruptions as the Trump administration considers eliminating the de minimis exemption, a policy shift that could significantly impact e-commerce-driven air freight between China, the U.S., and beyond. According to Xeneta’s latest analysis, prohibiting import shipments from de minimis entry would introduce higher costs, lengthier customs processing, and capacity constraints, with the potential to shift market dynamics for cross-border trade.
For now, the de minimis exemption remains intact, but a permanent policy change would add complexity for e-commerce shipments, which account for more than half of the cargo capacity moving from China to the U.S. Additional customs requirements would increase clearance times and limit the ability of online retailers to move high volumes of small parcels efficiently. While e-commerce products would still be cheaper than buying through U.S. retailers, the loss of speed and predictability could erode the sector’s competitive advantage.
Market Resilience and E-Commerce Adaptation
While changes to the de minimis threshold would introduce operational challenges, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw believes that the fundamentals of e-commerce will remain strong. According to van de Wouw, Chinese e-commerce giants have not built their business models around exploiting de minimis loopholes but rather around meeting consumer demand for fast, low-cost goods. This means they are unlikely to pull back from the U.S. market, even if policy changes introduce new constraints.
If de minimis restrictions take effect, delays and customs backlogs at U.S. airports could create initial chaos, but air freight volumes may not decline immediately. Van de Wouw anticipates that e-commerce platforms will continue selling and shipping products regardless of regulatory changes. The greater risk lies in whether consumers will tolerate increased wait times. If they decide that longer delivery times outweigh the benefit of lower costs, it could put downward pressure on global air cargo demand.
Looking Ahead to 2025: Growth Projections Hold Steady
Despite ongoing uncertainty, Xeneta has maintained its forecast for global air cargo growth at 4% to 6% for 2025. While January saw a lower-than-expected 2% year-over-year increase in air freight demand, this dip was largely attributed to the earlier timing of Lunar New Year celebrations rather than broader economic concerns.
Van de Wouw downplayed speculation that trade policies have already started to weigh on air cargo demand, arguing that uncertainty alone does not disrupt freight markets in the short term. However, he acknowledged that prolonged negotiations over tariffs and trade restrictions could complicate long-term planning for shippers.
“The implementation of tariffs by the U.S. and the responses of China, Canada, and Mexico are just the start of a negotiation. It’s all transactional,” he said. “We could end up in a global trade war, but in the case of President Trump, we have someone who’s ready to negotiate everything and the rest of the world can influence the outcome, as we have already seen. The consistency here is he’s looking for a deal.”
What Comes Next for Supply Chain Leaders?
As policymakers weigh potential trade restrictions, supply chain leaders must prepare for shifting regulations that could impact air cargo routes, customs clearance times, and overall logistics costs. Planning will require balancing flexibility with contingency measures. While there is no need to make drastic adjustments yet, companies that rely heavily on cross-border e-commerce must closely monitor regulatory developments, assess alternative shipping models, and prepare for potential disruptions in the months ahead.
The market has weathered uncertainty before, but staying ahead of policy shifts will be key to maintaining competitiveness in a rapidly evolving global trade environment.
