Amazon is on pace to become the largest parcel shipper in the United States by 2028, according to Pitney Bowes’ 2024 Parcel Shipping Index. The report projects Amazon will deliver 8.4 billion parcels domestically that year, just ahead of USPS, which is forecasted at 8.3 billion. Having already outpaced FedEx and UPS in U.S. parcel volume, Amazon now holds the number two spot and is tightening its grip on the top.
Amazon Closes In on Market Leader Status
With FedEx and UPS already in the rearview, Amazon is now projected to surpass the U.S. Postal Service in domestic parcel volume within three years, signaling a reordering of the nation’s parcel power structure.
The momentum is driven both by strategic intent and structural necessity. Amazon has significantly expanded its in-house logistics operations over the past decade, positioning itself as a direct carrier for the bulk of its marketplace orders. That trajectory is accelerating after UPS announced plans to halve the Amazon volume it handles by 2026, a move intended to prioritize higher-margin shipping clients. As a result, Amazon is expected to double down on its internal network and grow its third-party offering, Amazon Shipping.
Pitney Bowes, which has tracked U.S. parcel trends since 2015, described Amazon’s growth as transformative. “The parcel market was long defined by the Big Three—FedEx, UPS, and USPS. Amazon Logistics, once a fringe player, is rapidly reshaping that narrative,” the report noted.
Alternative Carriers Shake The Market
The rise of Amazon and a host of emerging carriers is creating downward pressure on parcel pricing across the board. According to Pitney Bowes, average revenue per parcel dropped slightly to $9.09 in 2024 from $9.10 the year prior, despite ongoing fuel surcharges and inflationary pressures. Discounting has become a common strategy among major players trying to retain volume amid intensifying competition.
USPS, meanwhile, is holding its ground through its Ground Advantage service, a lower-cost shipping option rolled out to attract e-commerce businesses and bolster volume. That strategy appears to be gaining traction: USPS shipped 6.9 billion parcels in 2024, marking its first year of growth since 2020. Direct commercial contracts with shippers have played a key role in that rebound.
Not to be overlooked, alternative carriers outside the major four are gaining serious ground. These companies moved 780 million parcels in 2024, a 22.6% year-over-year increase, thanks to improved geographic coverage and service quality. As shippers seek both lower costs and greater flexibility, the demand for regional and niche providers continues to rise.
The Hidden Leverage Behind Amazon’s Logistics Dominance
While Amazon’s scale garners headlines, the more disruptive force may lie in its integration. The company controls a unified stack, from digital storefront to warehouse to doorstep, which lets it flex its logistics network with agility unmatched by legacy carriers. As shipping transitions from being a service to a strategic differentiator, Amazon’s ability to manage cost, speed, and customer data in one system is turning into an operational advantage that rivals will find increasingly difficult to replicate.
